Xeneta - Experts & Thought Leaders

Major carrier - CMA CGM has announced its INDAMEX service will transit Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and US East Coast in a notable step towards a large-scale return of container ships to the Red Sea region. The first vessel to complete a full service loop via Suez Canal will be CMA CGM VERDI, sailing from Karachi to New York on 15 January. eeSea by Xeneta data shows voyages via Suez Canal rather than Cape of Good Hope reduces full loop transit time on this service by two weeks, down to 77 days. CMA CGM’s announcement Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta – the ocean freight intelligence platform - said: “We are still some way from a largescale return of container shipping to the Red Sea, but CMA CGM’s announcement of a full east-west loop via Suez is certainly a notable step in the right direction." “We have seen carriers, particularly CMA CGM, testing the water recently by transiting Suez Canal on a select few voyages, particularly backhaul legs to Asia when there is less cargo onboard." “Until now, these transits via Suez Canal have been on a case-by-case basis, diverting voyages originally scheduled to sail around Cape of Good Hope. CMA CGM’s announcement this week is important because it is a structural change with a service proforma to transit Suez Canal on every sailing.” Vessels on the INDAMEX service Four more vessels on the INDAMEX service (APL OREGON, CMA CGM PASSION, APL LE HAVRE, CMA CGM MAUPASSANT) will make eastbound transits via Suez before the new rotation takes full effect. There are also eastbound transits of Suez Canal by other CMA CGM vessels, including CMA CGM JULES VERNE, APL CHANGI, CMA CGM GALAPAGOS, CMA CGM GRACE BAY, APL MERLION and CMA CGM KIMBERLEY; however, only the latter two are ‘official’ or proforma passages. Escalation of attacks on merchant ships Other major carriers, including Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk, have not announced a firm timeline for a large-scale Red Sea return, while ZIM has stated it is waiting for insurance approval. Sand has warned the latest announcement by CMA CGM does not automatically mean an imminent large-scale return of container shipping to the Red Sea. The number of container ships transiting Suez Canal in November 2025 was 120, down from 583 in October 2023, shortly before the escalation of attacks on merchant ships in the region by Houthi Militia. Container shipping capacity and freight rates Sand said: “Carriers will be carrying out risk assessments and the security situation remains fragile. The assessment will look at the Houthi’s ability, opportunity and intent to attack ships. We know they have the ability, but carriers will want assurance over their intent, especially because the opportunity will increase as more ships begin sailing through the region.” The shorter transit time on a full loop via Suez on the CMA CGM INDAMEX means two ships will be dropped from the service – a pre-cursor for the impact a large-scale return would have on container shipping capacity and freight rates. Ocean container shipping market Sand said: “There is already overcapacity of supply in the ocean container shipping market and spot rates are falling even without a large-scale return to the Red Sea. Average spot rates on Far East fronthauls to US East Coast and North Europe are down 57% and 53% respectively compared to a year ago." “If we see other carriers follow CMA CGM, then capacity will flood the market and we could see freight rates fall hard. This could push carriers further towards loss-making territory, but they will be fully aware of this outlook and ready to respond.”

The US and China reached a 12-month trade war truce this week, including lowering fentanyl tariffs by 10% and suspending port fees – but it will not halt the decline in ocean container freight rates in 2026. Average spot rates from China to US West Coast on 31 October are down 59% year-on-year at USD 2147 per FEU (40ft container). Spot rates into the US East Coast are down 48% year-on-year at USD 3044 per FEU. Declining spot rates coincide with falling volumes on Transpacific trades, with latest figures showing container shipping demand from China to US down 13% year-on-year in August. Positive development Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, said: "The US-China truce is a positive development, but it will not suddenly breathe life into weakening ocean container shipping demand on Transpacific trades. Tariffs are still high despite the truce and US shippers will use the first half of 2026 to draw down inventories built up through frontloading imports earlier in the year to protect supply chains in the wake of the escalating trade war." She adds, "Xeneta expects global average spot rates to fall up to 25% for the full year 2026 and long term rates to drop up to 10% against this backdrop of subdued demand between the world’s two most powerful trading nations." Major challenges for carriers in 2026 The Xeneta forecast for 2026 would put global average long term rates 20% below levels in December 2023, prior to escalation of conflict in the Red Sea. Emily Stausbøll said: "The US-China truce sees the removal of port fees for ships calling at both sides of the Pacific. This is welcome news for carriers, with some being hit with multi-million-dollar port fees, but they are still heading towards potentially loss-making territory if long term contract rates drop significantly below pre-Red Sea Crisis levels at the end of 2023." She continues, "Overcapacity of container shipping supply will be rampant in 2026 against subdued demand. Carriers face an almighty struggle to fill vessels on the critical trades from China to US because the lower tariffs announced this week will not bring about a change in fortunes." Truce does not provide long term stability The agreement between the US and China is a 12-month truce rather than a long-term trade deal – leaving carriers and shippers in uncertain positions. Emily Stausbøll further states: "Once again we see trade used as a weapon in geo-political wars. USTR port fees have been paused without any progress being made on the issue that was nominally cited as the reason they were needed – strengthening US shipbuilding. Carriers have already repositioned vessels across global shipping services to deal with the threat of the port fees and this disruption is now seemingly all for nothing." She adds, "This agreement is temporary and it lacks detail, so shippers looking to make long term supply chain decisions are left in limbo. It takes longer than 12 months to set up manufacturing facilities in another nation if a shipper wants to shift supply chains out of China. No one can say with any degree of certainty what the situation will be when the truce expires – or even if the agreement lasts the full 12 months."

Xeneta, the globally renowned ocean and air freight rate intelligence platform, has unveiled a new generation of in-platform products, marking the next chapter in the company’s mission to transform freight procurement through data, insights and AI. Presented live to hundreds of industry pioneers at the annual Xeneta Summit in Barcelona, the new products will redefine how freight is bought and sold by reducing manual work and helping procurement teams to make better and faster decisions. Insights using genAI and new tools Fabio Brocca, Xeneta Chief Product Officer, told the Summit: "For decades, global procurement has been defined by fragmented data, fragile contracts and manual processes, but we can change that. With Xeneta, we have one integrated platform where data, insights and AI come together to drive confident, strategic decision-making." He adds, "Procurement professionals are trying to move away from constant firefighting in the face of market shocks and towards a proactive approach. This transformation is made possible through new service level data, smart insights using genAI and new tools to manage rates directly in Xeneta." Product launch: Xeneta generative AI Agents Xeneta AI Agents are specialised and autonomous AI-powered copilots for procurement teams. The AI Agents analyse freight data continuously to surface opportunities, suggest recommendations and even generate ready-to-send carrier communications. The first three agents are now available for early access: Spend Optimisation Agent – identifies saving opportunities across high spend corridors. Supplier Optimisation Agent – compares suppliers based on cost, reliability, and capacity. Capacity Planning Agent – helps allocate volume dynamically based on real-time trade capacity. Fabio Brocca said: "Our AI Agents act as a team of analysts working 24/7. They gather data, summarise insights and even draft the next steps, so procurement professionals can focus on making decisions, not analysing spreadsheets." Product launch: Integrated rate management Procurement teams have long battled inconsistent rate sheets, scattered Excel files and outdated templates Procurement teams have long battled inconsistent rate sheets, scattered Excel files and outdated templates. Xeneta Integrated Rate Management (IRM) replaces this fragmentation with a unified rate repository inside the Xeneta platform. Users can now upload, store and manage all freight contracts in one place, with automatic mapping to the Xeneta data model, built-in audit trails and direct benchmarking against live market data. Fabio Brocca stated: "IRM turns rate management from a manual task into an intelligent process. For the first time, all your rate data, benchmarks and AI-driven recommendations live in one integrated system - a single source of truth for your freight rates." Product launch: Indexing solution Market volatility continues to challenge long-term contracts. Xeneta’s Indexing Solution empowers shippers and carriers to move from slow RFQs to dynamic, Index-Linked Contracts (ILCs) that evolve with the market. Xeneta’s Indexing Solution empowers shippers and carriers to move from slow RFQs Building on the success of the Index Simulator released earlier this year, Xeneta now introduces the Index Live Contract Manager, which automates formula calculations, performance tracking and audit logs, executing index-linked contracts directly inside the Xeneta platform. Fabio Brocca said: "Indexing brings fairness and trust back into freight procurement. You can simulate, negotiate and now execute index-linked contracts in-platform, cutting tender cycles from months to days and ensuring both sides pay or earn fair market rates." A unified vision for the industry The launches are part of Xeneta’s broader roadmap to create an integrated decision engine for freight procurement; This combines the company’s market data with service performance metrics from eeSea (acquired by Xeneta in 2025) and intelligent automation powered by AI. Fabio Brocca concludes: "Procurement must evolve from firefighting to foresight. The future of freight intelligence isn’t coming someday, it’s here. It starts with all of us, building together an industry that’s faster, smarter and based on data."